2026 Midterm Forecast

by Ashleigh Dietrich

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Oct 25, 2026 Analytics

data simulation election prediction midterm forecast polling win probability

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Hello, I made a poll-based midterm forecast, which averages recent polls in each race (weighted by recency and size), computes a win probability, and simulates 10,000 elections for a prediction. You can click any state or district to see each side’s chances. I took the same method and ran it on the previous elections (2016 to 2024), where you can compare the predictions to the actual results. The page also checks VoteHub for newly released polls and rebuilds every four hours. https://junekihong....